Brent crude settled near $100 per barrel on October 7, 2026. The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration outlook, completed before some of the most recent market events, forecasts Brent to average about $84 per barrel in 2027 as oil flows recover and inventories rebuild. That figure provides a useful de-escalation benchmark, but the current conflict creates unusually wide uncertainty.

Conflict and recurring disruption

If attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure continue, logistics remain constrained and refined-product shortages persist, Brent could remain broadly in the $95–115 per barrel range during much of 2027. The upper end would become more plausible if export infrastructure suffers renewed damage or the Strait of Hormuz is repeatedly disrupted. High refining margins and tight diesel supply could also keep the wider energy market under pressure.

De-escalation and recovery

If the Gulf conflict de-escalates, tanker traffic normalizes, damaged infrastructure is restored and inventories rebuild, Brent could gradually fall toward the $75–85 per barrel area by late 2027. This path is broadly consistent with the EIA’s current $84 annual-average forecast, although the decline may be uneven because rebuilding crude and refined-product stocks could take time.

Business implication

Investors should test projects against both price environments rather than relying on one forecast. Experts Group can incorporate scenario analysis into feasibility studies, project economics, sensitivity analysis, financing models and investment decisions for oil, gas, refining and energy projects.

Brent prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to security in the Strait of Hormuz, refinery recovery and the rebuilding of global inventories.

Note: The two scenario paths are illustrative midpoints designed for project sensitivity analysis. They are not trading advice or guaranteed forecasts.

Sources: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 6, 2026; Reuters oil-market reporting, October 5–7, 2026; World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026. Scenario lines are illustrative Experts Group analysis, not a guaranteed forecast.